Econometric ridge regression models of risk-sensitive sunflower yield / Modelos economométricos de regressão de rendimento de girassol sensível ao risco

The article considers econometric ridge regression models of the risk-sensitive sunflower yield on the example of an export-oriented agricultural crop. In particular, we have proved that despite the functional mulcollinearity of the predictors in the sunflower yield model with respect to risk caused by the algorithm peculiarities of the hierarchy analysis methods, the ridge regression procedure makes it possible to obtain its complete specification and provide biased but stable estimates of the forecast parameters in the case of uncertain input variables. It has been substantiated that the rational value of the displacement parameters is expedient to be established using a graphical interpretation of the ridge wake as the border of fast and slow fluctuations in the estimates of the ridge regression coefficients. Econometric models were calculated using SPSS Statistics, Mathcad and FAR-AREA 4.0 software. The empirical basis for forecast calculations was the assessment of trends in sunflower production in all categories of farms in the Rostov region of Russia for the period of 2008-2018. The calculation results of econometric models made it possible to develop three author's scenarios for the sunflower production in the region, namely, inertial, moderate, and optimistic ones that consider the export-oriented strategy of the agro-industrial complex.(AU)

O artigo considera modelos econométricos de regressão de rendimento de girassol sensível ao risco sobre o exemplo de uma cultura agrícola orientada para a exportação. Em particular, provamos que apesar da multicolinearidade funcional dos preditores no modelo de rendimento de girassol com relação ao risco causado pelas peculiaridades dos algoritmos dos métodos de análise hierárquica, o procedimento de regressão de cristas permite obter sua especificação completa e fornecer estimativas tendenciosas, mas estáveis dos parâmetros de previsão no caso de variáveis de entrada incertas. Foi comprovado que o valor racional dos parâmetros de deslocamento é conveniente de ser estabelecido usando uma interpretação gráfica da esteira da crista como fronteira das flutuações rápidas e lentas nas estimativas dos coeficientes de regressão da crista. Os modelos econométricos foram calculados usando o software SPSS Statistics, Mathcad e FAR-AREA 4.0. A base empírica para os cálculos de previsão foi a avaliação das tendências da produção de girassol em todas as categorias de fazendas na região de Rostov na Rússia para o período de 2008-2018. Os resultados dos cálculos dos modelos econométricos permitiram desenvolver três cenários de autor para a produção de girassol na região, a saber, os cenários inercial, moderado e otimista que consideram a estratégia orientada à exportação do complexo agroindustrial.(AU)

O efeito de filhos com deficiência intelectual na oferta de trabalho das mães no Brasil / The effect of children with intellectual disability in the labor supply of mothers in Brazil / El efecto de los niños con discapacidad intelectual en la oferta de trabajo de sus madres en Brasil

Este trabalho se propõe a analisar as relações existentes entre a presença de filho com deficiência intelectual e a oferta de trabalho materno no Brasil. A análise estratificou os resultados por grau de limitação decorrente da deficiência e por tipo de síndrome ou transtorno de desenvolvimento. Os dados são provenientes da Pesquisa Nacional de Saúde e foram utilizados modelos econométricos logit e tobit nas estimações. Os resultados sugerem uma redução média de 17 pontos percentuais na probabilidade de mães que tenham filho com deficiência intelectual estarem empregadas. Caso a deficiência provoque uma limitação intensa, a redução pode chegar a 25 pontos percentuais. Observou-se, ainda, que a deficiência intelectual do filho afeta de forma negativa e significativa o número de horas semanais de trabalho das mães que participam do mercado de trabalho, havendo uma redução média de 8,9 horas e, nos casos de limitação intensa, de 11,2 horas. Estes resultados podem ter implicações importantes na formulação de políticas públicas, uma vez que a deficiência intelectual do filho demonstra ser um entrave relevante para a participação das mães no mercado de trabalho.

This study aims to analyze the relationship between children's mental illness and mother's labor supply in Brazil. The analysis stratified results by the degree of limitation resulting from the disability and by type of syndromes or developmental disorders. Data come from the National Health Survey and Logit and Tobit econometric models were used in the estimations. Results suggest an average reduction of 17 percentage points in the probability of mother's work if they raise a child with intellectual disability and, if disability leads to severe limitation, the reduction may reach 25 percentage points. We also find that the child's intellectual disability negatively and significantly affects the number of weekly working hours for employed mothers, with an average reduction of 8.9 hours and, in cases of severe limitation, 11,2 hours. These results may have important implications for the formulation of public policies, since the child's intellectual disability proves to be a relevant obstacle to the participation of mothers in the labor market.

El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar la relación entre la presencia de hijos con discapacidad intelectual y la oferta de trabajo materno en Brasil. El análisis estratificó los resultados por el grado de limitación resultante de la discapacidad y por el tipo de síndromes o trastornos del desarrollo. Los datos provienen de la Encuesta Nacional de Salud y en las estimaciones se utilizaron modelos econométricos Logit y Tobit. Los resultados sugieren una reducción promedio de 17 puntos porcentuales en la probabilidad de que las madres que tienen hijos con discapacidad intelectual estén empleadas. Si la deficiencia causa una limitación intensa, la reducción puede alcanzar los 25 puntos porcentuales. También se observó que la discapacidad intelectual del niño afecta de manera negativa y significativa el número de horas semanales de trabajo de las madres que participan en el mercado laboral, con una reducción promedio de 8,9 horas y, en casos de limitación severa, de 11,2 horas. Estos resultados pueden tener implicaciones importantes para la formulación de políticas públicas, ya que la discapacidad intelectual del niño demuestra ser un obstáculo relevante para la participación de las madres en el mercado laboral.

Life satisfaction in Brazil: an exploration of theoretical correlates and age, period and cohort variations using the World Values Survey (1991-2014)* / Satisfação com a vida no Brasil: uma exploração de correlatos teóricos e variações de idade, período e coorte usando o World Values Survey (1991-2014) / Satisfacción vital en Brasil: una exploración de correlatos teoréticos y variaciones de edad, período y cohorte usando la World Values Survey (1991-2014)

This paper discusses some of the factors associated with life satisfaction in Brazil using four waves of the World Values Survey (1991 to 2014). Some results already described in the literature were confirmed, as we found that individuals who were married, employed, more religious, in better health, with greater freedom/control over their lives and who had a better financial situation were more satisfied with life, regardless of the time period. The variables for age and cohort showed non-significant associations with life satisfaction when aspects that theoretically correlated with life satisfaction were controlled in the analysis. When the different cohorts were analyzed separately, the results suggest that life satisfaction might be related to the conjectural and historical factors represented by period effects.

Esse artigo analisa fatores relacionados à satisfação com a vida no Brasil, utilizando as quatro ondas da pesquisa World Values Survey (1991 até 2014). Foram confirmados alguns resultados já descritos na literatura, tais como pessoas casadas, mais saudáveis, empregadas, mais religiosas e que tinham maior controle sobre a própria vida e melhor condição financeira se consideravam mais satisfeitas com a vida. Quanto às variáveis idade e coorte, os resultados foram não significativos quando analisados com fatores correlacionados com a satisfação com a vida. Quando diferentes coortes foram analisadas separadamente, os resultados sugeriram que a satisfação com a vida se mostrou relacionada com fatores históricos e conjunturais representados pelos efeitos de períodos.

Ese artículo analizó factores asociados con la satisfacción con la vida en Brasil utilizando cuatro pesquisas de la World Values Survey desde 1991 hasta 2014. Fueron confirmados algunos resultados ya descritos en la literatura, como casados, personas más saludables, empleadas o más religiosos, que tenían un mayor control de sus propias vidas y que las de mejor condición financiera se consideraban más satisfechas con la vida. Con relación a las variables edad y cohorte, los efectos generales fueron no significativos al ser analizadas junto con otros aspectos correlacionados con la satisfacción con la vida. Cuando fueron analizadas diferentes cohortes separadamente, los resultados sugirieron que la satisfacción con la vida estaba relacionada con factores históricos y coyunturales representados por los efectos de los períodos.

Factores de riesgo y enfermedades cardiometabólicas en Risaralda 2017 proyectada a 2050 / Risk factors and cardiometabolic disease in Risaralda 2017 to 2050

Resumen Objetivo: Proyectar el comportamiento de factores de riesgo y de la incidencia de dos enfermedades cardiometabólicas, en una población colombiana entre 2017 y 2050. Metodología: Diseño de cohorte abierta basado en un modelo de microsimulación dinámica para la población adulta de Risaralda, Colombia. Los factores de riesgo analizados son tabaquismo, obesidad global, obesidad central y colesterol total. Se creó una población sintética que replica las características demográficas y de salud de Risaralda en 2010, utilizando algoritmos de emparejamiento e imputación estadística. La evolución a lo largo del curso de vida se simuló basada en reglas derivadas de la literatura, con ecuaciones estocásticas y modelos econométricos. Se calcula la incidencia de diabetes tipo II y de eventos cerebrovasculares isquémicos de 2017 a 2050. Resultados: En 2050, 16.7 % serán fumadores, la tercera parte de ellos presentarán obesidad global y más de la mitad presentarán obesidad central. El promedio de colesterol total aumentará 5 mg/dL. Adicionalmente, se espera que entre 2017 y 2050 se presenten 204.966 casos nuevos de diabetes y 65.758 eventos cerebrovasculares isquémicos. Conclusiones: Los estilos de vida y el envejecimiento poblacional, llevarán a mayor exposición a riesgo y aumentarán la velocidad a la que los risaraldenses se enfermarán de Diabetes y experimentarán eventos cerebrovasculares. La obesidad global y central son factores que explicarían esta tendencia. Se requieren intervenciones intersectoriales que protejan a la población y reduzcan cargas fiscales por condiciones evitables.

Abstract Objective: predict the behavior of the risk factors and the incidence of two cardiometabolic diseases in a population from Colombia between 2017 and 2050. Methodology: Follow up of individual's cohort of an artificial society of Risaralda, Colombia, based on a microsimulation model. The risk factors analyzed in this study are tobacco use, obesity, central obesity and total cholesterol. A synthetic population was created to replicate demographic and health characteristics of Risaralda in 2010, using pairing algorithms and statistical imputation. The evolution along the life course was simulated based on rules from scientific literature, with stochastic equations and econometric estimates. The incidence of type II diabetes and ischemic stroke is calculated for the adult population between 2017 to 2050. Results: 16.7% of the adults by 2050 is expected to be smokers, a third of them will have global obesity and more than half will have central obesity. The average level of serum total cholesterol would increase by 5 mg/dL. Additionally, is expected that between 2017 and 2050 there will be 204.966 incident cases of diabetes and 65.758 first-ever ischemic stroke events. Conclusions: Lifestyles and expected population aging will lead to greater risk of disease and will increase the rate at which local people will get diabetes and ischemic stroke. Risk factors like global and central obesity explain this trend. Effective intersectoral interventions are needed to protect the population and reduce tax burden due to preventable conditions.

Construção de um índice de desenvolvimento sustentável e análise espacial das desigualdades nos municípios cearenses / Construcción de un índice de desarrollo sostenible y análisis espacial de las desigualdades en los municipios del estado de Ceará / Building a sustainable development index and spacial assessment of municipalities inequalities in the state of Ceará

Resumo O artigo apresenta a análise espacial da sustentabilidade nos municípios cearenses a partir da construção de um índice de desenvolvimento sustentável, embasado em dimensões social, ambiental, econômica e institucional. Os índices de sustentabilidade forçam instituições e governos a questionarem seus padrões e atuam como "forças motrizes" para a elaboração de políticas públicas. A validade dos índices de sustentabilidade depende da definição do conjunto de indicadores e das técnicas adotadas para definição dos ponderadores e agregação dos indicadores. A pesquisa é de natureza quantitativa, desenvolvida por meio de dados secundários, e adotou análise fatorial confirmatória para a construção do índice de desenvolvimento sustentável (IDS) e modelagem econométrica espacial para representação das desigualdades no mapa dos municípios cearenses. Os resultados da pesquisa revelam um ajuste regular do índice de desenvolvimento sustentável. O IDS permite uma visualização geográfica e identificação de associação espacial dos indicadores de desenvolvimento sustentável, e apresenta-se como uma ferramenta de suporte à definição de políticas públicas. A pesquisa revelou que áreas mais urbanas do estado do Ceará apresentam um melhor índice de desenvolvimento sustentável, e confirmou a fragilidade das políticas públicas em promover o equilíbrio regional.

Resumen El artículo presenta el análisis espacial de la sostenibilidad en los municipios cearenses a partir de la construcción de un índice de desarrollo sostenible, basado en dimensiones social, ambiental, económica e institucional. Los índices de sostenibilidad obligan a instituciones y gobiernos a cuestionar sus patrones y actúan como "fuerzas motrices" para la elaboración de políticas públicas. La validez de los índices de sostenibilidad depende de la definición del conjunto de indicadores y de las técnicas adoptadas para definir los ponderadores y la agregación de los indicadores. La investigación es de naturaleza cuantitativa, desarrollada por medio de datos secundarios, y adoptó análisis factorial confirmatorio para la construcción del índice de desarrollo sostenible (IDS) y modelado econométrico espacial para representación de las desigualdades en el mapa de los municipios cearenses. Los resultados de la investigación revelan un ajuste regular del índice de desarrollo sostenible. El IDS permite una visualización geográfica e identificación de asociación espacial de los indicadores de desarrollo sostenible, y se presenta como una herramienta de apoyo a la definición de políticas públicas. La investigación reveló que áreas más urbanas del estado de Ceará presentan un mejor índice de desarrollo sostenible, y confirmó la fragilidad de las políticas públicas en promover el equilibrio regional

Abstract The paper builds a sustainable development index based on environmental, social, economic and institutional dimensions and presents a spatial assessment of municipalitties inequalities in the State of Ceará. Sustainability indices force institutions and governments to question their standards and act as "driving forces" for public policy-making. The validity of sustainability indexes is heavily dependent on how their components are weighted and aggregated. The research is quantitative developed through secondary data acquired in public agency databases of the country (Brazil) and federal unit (State of Ceara). Data analysis included confirmatory factor analysis for the construction of general sustainability indexes, descriptive analysis of these indices and spatial econometric modeling to represent on the map of Ceará municipalities. The survey results reveal a regular adjustment of the sustainable development index. The model allows a geographical view of sustainable development indicators and presents with a tool in the definition of public policies for social equity, environmental and economic. The analysis of social, economic, environmental, institutional and general indices revealed that the most urban areas of the State of Ceará have a greater sustainable development and confirms the fragility of public policies in promoting regional balance.

Econometric Analysis of the Difference in Medical Use among Income Groups in Korea: 2015 / 보건행정학회지

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study is to estimate empirically whether there is a difference in medical use among income groups, and if so, how much. This study applies econometric model to the most recent year of Korean Medical Panel, 2015. The model consists of outpatient service and inpatient service models. METHODS: The probit model is applied to the model which indicate whether or not the medical care has been used. Two step estimation method using maximum likelihood estimation is applied to the models of outpatient visits, hospital days, and outpatient and inpatient out-of-pocket cost models, with disconnected selection problems. RESULTS: The results show that there was the inequality favorable to the low income group in medical care use. However, after controlling basic medical needs, there were no inequities among income groups in the outpatient visit model and the model of probability of inpatient service use. However, there were inequities favorable to the upper income groups in the models of probability of outpatient service use and outpatient out-of-pocket cost and the models of the number of length of stay and inpatient out-of-pocket cost. In particular, it shows clearly how the difference in outpatient service and inpatient service utilizations by income groups when basic medical needs are controlled. CONCLUSION: This means that the income contributes significantly to the degree of inequality in outpatient and inpatient care services. Therefore, the existence of medical care use difference under the same medical needs among income groups is a problem in terms of equity of medical care use, so great efforts should be made to establish policies to improve equity among income groups.

Condicionantes socioeconómicos y obesidad en adultos: evidencia basada en regresiones por cuantiles y datos de panel / Socioeconomic factors conditioning obesity in adults. Evidence based on quantile regression and panel data

Objetivo Se pretende medir el efecto de variables de naturaleza socioeconómica sobre la prevalencia de obesidad, con base en el nivel de ingreso, la urbanización, la incorporación de la mujer al mercado laboral y la accesibilidad a alimentos no saludables. Método Se realizaron estimaciones econométricas de la proporción de varones y mujeres obesas por país, aplicando modelos basados en datos de panel y regresiones por cuantiles, con datos provenientes de 192 países para el período 2002-2005. Como variables explicativas se consideraron los niveles de ingreso per cápita, urbanización, la razón ingreso/precio del Big Mac e indicadores laborales de la población femenina. Resultado Los factores que inciden en la obesidad en adultos difieren entre varones y mujeres; la accesibilidad a comida rápida afecta en mayor medida a la obesidad masculina mientras que la modalidad de inserción laboral provoca mayores guarismos de obesidad en las mujeres. Los factores socioeconómicos subyacentes en la obesidad también son diferentes según la magnitud de esta problemática en cada país; en países con baja prevalencia, aumentos del nivel de ingreso favorecen el tránsito hacia hábitos obesogénicos, mientras que en países con elevadas tasas de obesidad, el nivel de ingresos atenúa el problema. Discusión Identificar las causas socioeconómicas del notable incremento en la prevalencia de obesidad es fundamental para la implementación de estrategias efectivas para su prevención, no sólo por la disminución de la calidad de vida de quienes la padecen sino por la presión sobre los sistemas sanitarios de los costos de tratamiento de las patologías asociadas.(AU)

Objective To measure the effect of socioeconomic variables on the prevalence of obesity. Factors such as income level, urbanization, incorporation of women into the labor market and access to unhealthy foods are considered in this paper. Method Econometric estimates of the proportion of obese men and women by country were calculated using models based on panel data and quantile regressions, with data from 192 countries for the period 2002-2005.Levels of per capita income, urbanization, income/big mac ratio price and labor indicators for female population were considered as explanatory variables. Results Factors that have influence over obesity in adults differ between men and women; accessibility to fast food is related to male obesity, while the employment mode causes higher rates in women. The underlying socioeconomic factors for obesity are also different depending on the magnitude of this problem in each country; in countries with low prevalence, a greater level of income favor the transition to obesogenic habits, while a higher income level mitigates the problem in those countries with high rates of obesity. Discussion Identifying the socio-economic causes of the significant increase in the prevalence of obesity is essential for the implementation of effective strategies for prevention, since this condition not only affects the quality of life of those who suffer from it but also puts pressure on health systems due to the treatment costs of associated diseases.(AU)

Contextual determinants of induced abortion: a panel analysis / Determinantes contextuales del aborto inducido: un análisis panel

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE Analyze the contextual and individual characteristics that explain the differences in the induced abortion rate, temporally and territorially. METHODS We conducted an econometric analysis with panel data of the influence of public investment in health and per capita income on induced abortion as well as a measurement of the effect of social and economic factors related to the labor market and reproduction: female employment, immigration, adolescent fertility and marriage rate. The empirical exercise was conducted with a sample of 22 countries in Europe for the 2001-2009 period. RESULTS The great territorial variability of induced abortion was the result of contextual and individual socioeconomic factors. Higher levels of national income and investments in public health reduce its incidence. The following sociodemographic characteristics were also significant regressors of induced abortion: female employment, civil status, migration, and adolescent fertility. CONCLUSIONS Induced abortion responds to sociodemographic patterns, in which the characteristics of each country are essential. The individual and contextual socioeconomic inequalities impact significantly on its incidence. Further research on the relationship between economic growth, labor market, institutions and social norms is required to better understand its transnational variability and to reduce its incidence.

RESUMEN OBJETIVO Analizar las características contextuales e individuales que explican las diferencias en la tasa de aborto inducido, temporal y territorialmente. MÉTODOS Se realizó un análisis econométrico, con datos panel, de la influencia de la inversión pública en salud y renta per cápita sobre el aborto inducido, además de una medición del efecto de factores sociales y económicos relacionados con el mercado laboral y con la reproducción: empleo femenino, inmigración, fecundidad adolescente y nupcialidad. El ejercicio empírico se realizó con una muestra de 22 países de Europa, para el periodo 2001-2009. RESULTADOS La gran variabilidad territorial del aborto inducido fue consecuencia de factores socioeconómicos contextuales e individuales. Mayores niveles de renta nacional y de inversiones en salud pública, reducen su incidencia. Las siguientes características sociodemográficas también fueron regresores significativos del aborto inducido: empleo femenino, estado civil, migración y fecundidad adolescente. CONCLUSIONES El aborto inducido responde a patrones sociodemográficos, en los que las peculiaridades de cada país son fundamentales. Las desigualdades socioeconómicas, a nivel individual y contextual, afectan de forma significativa su incidencia. Es necesaria más investigación acerca de relaciones entre crecimiento económico, mercado laboral, instituciones y normas sociales, para comprender mejor su variabilidad transnacional, y para poder reducir su incidencia.

Análise dos incentivos contratuais de transplantes de rins no Brasil pelo modelo agente-principal / Analysis of contractual incentives for kidney transplants in Brazil using the principal-agent model / Análisis de los incentivos contractuales de trasplantes de riñón en Brasil mediante el modelo agente-principal

Resumo: O objetivo do artigo foi analisar os incentivos contratuais de transplantes renais no Brasil com base no modelo agente-principal. A abordagem assume que o Ministério da Saúde seja o principal e os hospitais públicos credenciados pelo Sistema Nacional de Transplantes sejam o agente. O bem- estar do Ministério da Saúde depende das ações tomadas pelos hospitais captadores desse órgão. Os hospitais alocam esforços administrativos, financeiros e gerenciais para realizar as ações de doação, remoção, captação e transplante de rim. Os hospitais podem escolher os níveis de esforços que são compatíveis com os pagamentos e incentivos recebidos referentes ao custeio de transplantes. A solução para esse tipo de problema está na estruturação de um contrato ótimo de incentivos, no qual se requer um alinhamento de interesses de ambas as partes envolvidas nesse sistema de transplantes.

Abstract: The aim of this article was to analyze contractual incentives for kidney transplants in Brazil based on the principal-agent model. The approach assumes that the Brazilian Ministry of Health is the principal and the public hospitals accredited by the National Transplant System are the agent. The Ministry of Health's welfare depends on measures taken by hospitals in kidney uptake. Hospitals allocate administrative, financial, and management efforts to conduct measures in kidney donation, removal, uptake, and transplantation. Hospitals may choose the levels of effort that are consistent with the payments and incentives received in relation to transplantation costs. The solution to this type of problem lies in structuring an optimal incentives contract, which requires aligning the interests of both parties involved in the transplantation system.

Resumen: El objetivo del artículo fue analizar los incentivos contractuales de trasplantes renales en Brasil, a partir del modelo agente-principal. Este enfoque asume que el Ministerio de Salud sea el principal y los hospitales públicos, autorizados por el Sistema Nacional de Trasplantes, sean los agentes. El bienestar del Ministerio de Salud depende de las acciones tomadas por los hospitales receptores de este órgano. Los hospitales proporcionan los esfuerzos administrativos, financieros y de gestión para realizar las acciones de donación, extirpación, recepción y trasplante de riñón. Los hospitales pueden escoger los niveles de esfuerzos que son compatibles con los pagos e incentivos recibidos, referentes al costeo de trasplantes. La solución para este tipo de problema está en la estructuración de un contrato óptimo de incentivos, en el que se requiera un alineamiento de intereses de ambas partes involucradas en este sistema de trasplantes.

Bacaba beverage produced by Umutina Brazilian Amerindians: Microbiological and chemical characterization

Bacaba chicha is a beverage prepared by the indigenous Umutina people from the bacaba fruit (Oenocarpus bacaba), a purple berry that is rich in fat and carbohydrates, as well as a source of phenolic compounds. In this study, samples of bacaba chicha beverage were collected, and the microbial community was assessed using culture-dependent and -independent techniques. The nutritional composition and metabolite profiles were analyzed, and species belonging to lactic acid bacteria (LAB) and yeasts were detected. The LAB group detected by culture-dependent analysis included Enterococcus hormaechei and Leuconostoc lactis. Polymerase chain reaction and denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (PCR-DGGE) detected additional Propionibacterium avidum, Acetobacter spp., and uncultured bacteria. Pichia caribbica and Pichia guilliermondii were detected in a culture-dependent method, and Pichia caribbica was confirmed by PCR-DGGE analysis. The pH value of the beverage was 6.2. The nutritional composition was as follows: 16.47 ± 0.73 g 100 mL-1 dry matter, 2.2 ± 0.0 g 100 mL-1 fat, 3.36 ± 0.44 g 100 mL-1 protein, and 10.87 ± 0.26 g 100 mL-1 carbohydrate. The metabolites detected were 2.69 g L-1 succinic acid, 0.9 g L-1 acetic acid, 0.49 g L-1 citric acid, 0.52 g L-1 ethanol, and 0.4 g L-1 glycerol. This is the first study to identify microbial diversity in bacaba chicha spontaneous fermentation. This study is also the starting step in the immaterial record of this Brazilian indigenous beverage prepared from bacaba fruit.

Impacto de la utilización de la red propia de una aseguradora privada sobre los costos de atención ambulatoria / The cost impact of a private insurer's own network upon outpatient care

Objetivo. Medir el impacto de la red propia (proveedores verticalmente integrados) de una aseguradora privada sobre los costos médicos ambulatorios de sus asegurados, a través de un análisis econométrico. Se busca verificar si un mayor uso de la red propia reduce los costos en los que la aseguradora incurre, de acuerdo con lo que sugiere la literatura especializada. Material y métodos. Estudio basado en una regresión lineal múltiple sobre los datos de una aseguradora privada. La variable dependiente es el costo per cápita de los servicios ambulatorios. Las variables explicativas son la adherencia a la red propia y una serie de variables para especificar mejor el modelo. Resultados. En relación con la cobertura de los costos de atención ambulatoria, si los demás factores se mantienen constantes, se observa que los asegurados con alta adherencia a la red propia presentan menores costos de atención que aquéllos con baja adherencia. Conclusión. El proceso decisorio sobre qué servicios y en qué grado debe ser aplicado a cada persona, por condiciones particulares de la oferta como el hecho de reunir recurso humano en sedes propias bajo reglas formales, presenta un impacto en los costos de atención en salud. Condiciones particulares de la oferta producen variaciones en la forma como son empleados los recursos.

Objective. Econometric analysis that seeks to measure the cost impact of a private insurer's own network upon outpatient care for its policyholders, own network refers to vertical integrated providers. The purpose is to assess whether greater use of its own network reduces the costs that the insurer incurred, according to what specialized literature suggests. Materials and methods. Study based on a multiple linear regression on data from a private insurer. The dependent variable is per capita cost of outpatient services. The explanatory variables are adherence to the own network and a number of variables to specify better the model. Results. With all other factors constant, in relation to covering the costs of outpatient care, it is noted that policyholders with high adhesion to their own network are less expensive than whose with low adhesion. Conclusions. The decision-making process about what services and what grade should be applied to each person by special conditions of the offer as the aggregation of human resources in own offices under formal rules has an impact on health care costs. Particular supply conditions cause variations in how resources are used.

Public HEs, diminishing returns, and life expectancy in Latin American and Caribbean countries: a panel data analysis

Introduction: The healthcare literature supposes the health status as a production function composed by economic, demographic and epidemiological factors. According to Grossman?s health production model, the health status should experience diminishing returns to increases inthose factors. Objective: The goal of this study is to examine whether the life expectancy at birth experiences diminishing returns to increases in fiscal healthcare expenditures using Latin American and Caribbean countries data. Method: To analyze non-linear specifications between life expectancyat birth and public spending on health, we used different panel data settings with annual data. Results: Unlike a previous finding for this region, the main outcome is that life expectancy at birth presents diminishing returns to increases in public spending on health, which is consistent with Grossman?s health production framework. Conclusion: The evidence indicates that life expectancy at birth is less sensitive to changes of public health expenditures, showing diminishing returns. This found might be used as an input to make better decisions on fiscal sources allocation to health.

Introdução: A literatura da assistência médica supõe que o estado de saúde é uma função de produção composta por fatores econômicos, demográficos e epidemiológicos. De acordo com o modelo de produção de saúde de Grossman, o estado de saúde deve experimentar retornos decrescentes nos aumentos nesses fatores.Objetivo: O objetivo deste estudo é analisar se a expectativa de vida ao nascer experimenta retornos decrescentes à causa dos aumentos nos gastos públicos em saúde utilizando dados de países da América Latina e do Caribe. Método: Para analisar especificações não-lineares entre a expectativa de vida ao nascer e gastos públicos em saúde, foram utilizados diferentes configurações de dados de painel e dados anuais. Resultados: Ao contrário de um achado anterior para esta região, o principal resultado é que a expectativa de vida ao nascer apresenta rendimentos decrescentes nos gastos públicos em saúde, o que é consistente com o modelo de produção de saúde de Grossman. Conclusão: As evidências indicam que a expectativa de vida ao nascer é menos sensível a alterações dos gastos públicos em saúde, mostrando retornos decrescentes. Este achado pode ser usado como um insumo para tomar melhores decisões sobre as alocação de recursos públicos em saúde.

Econograma: Diseño de un Instrumento Cualitativo para Investigación en Ambientes Sociales con poca o nula Información Socioeconómica de base / Econogram: designing a tool for qualitative research in social contexts with low or no socioeconomic information data base

Este artículo presenta un instrumento de investigación cualitativa denominado econograma y tiene su origen en la necesidad generar un conocimiento de base para evaluar la eficacia de los programas estatales implementados en la atención de población damnificada por un fenómeno de excesiva plu-viosidad, sucedido en Colombia entre noviembre de 2010 y marzo de 2011. Esta herramienta de investigación es a la vez un formato y una técnica, que pone en evidencia la estructura básica de las interacciónes que se establecen entre un individuo o un colectivo en términos económicos, y permite rastrear desplazamientos en los comportamientos económicos a través del tiempo, desde una perspectiva que permite inferir ciclos de producción y de consumo, tendencias y redes de producción.

This paper presents a qualitative research tool called Econogram. This instrument has its origin in the need to generate new knowledge to evaluate the effectiveness of the state programs, implemented to attend the population affected by a phenomenon of excessive rainfall in Colombia between November 2010 and March 2011. This research tool is both a format and a technique, which proves the structure of the interactions between an individual, or a group in economic terms. It also allows tracking and understanding shifts in economic behavior throughout time to infer cycles of production, consumption and production networks and trends.

¿Salud Pública o Privada? Los factores más importantes al evaluar el sistema de salud en Chile / Evaluation of public and private health care systems

Background: There is a great degree of dissatisfaction with the Chilean health care system. Aim: To investigate which are the most relevant perceived factors when the health care system is evaluated. Material and Methods: Analysis of a survey about the Chilean health care system carried out during 2011, 2012 and 2013, involving 2,801 respondents. Results: The response capacity of emergency systems was the main factor considered for the evaluation of public and private health care systems. Respondents who were affiliated to private insurance systems also took into consideration the quality of medical infrastructure. Conclusions: There are different factors considered when public or private health care systems are evaluated.

Evaluation of factors affecting prescribing behaviors, in Iran pharmaceutical market by econometric methods

Prescribing behavior of physicians affected by many factors. The present study is aimed at discovering the simultaneous effects of the evaluated factors [including: price, promotion and demographic characteristics of physicians] and quantification of these effects. In order to estimate these effects, Fluvoxamine [an antidepressant drug] was selected and the model was figured out by panel data method in econometrics. We found that insurance and advertisement respectively are the most effective on increasing the frequency of prescribing, whilst negative correlation was observed between price and the frequency of prescribing a drug. Also brand type is more sensitive to negative effect of price than to generic. Furthermore, demand for a prescription drug is related with physician demographics [age and sex]. According to the results of this study, pharmaceutical companies should pay more attention to the demographic characteristics of physicians [age and sex] and their advertisement and pricing strategies

Socioeconomic structure, self-fulfilment, homicides and spatial dependence in Brazil / Discussion Paper 151 : Socioeconomic structure, self-fuifilment, homicides and spatial dependence in Brazil

Desenvolve um modelo teórico para explicar a taxa de homicídios em uma determinada localidade. Estima, através de métodos bayesianos, um modelo econométrico com estrutura espacial para testar as hipóteses. Utiliza informações que cobriram 5.507 municípios brasileiros, no período entre 1999 e 2001.

Discrimination against the obese and very thin students in Brazilian schools / Discussion Paper 199 : Discrimination against the obese and very thin students in Brazilian schools

Analisa a discriminação contra estudantes com sobrepeso e muito magros nas escolas brasileiras, a partir de dados da PeNSE (Pesquisa Nacional de Saúde do Escolar).

Há irracionalidades no consumo de inibidores de apetite no Brasil? Uma análise farmacoeconométrica de dados em painel / Are there irrationalities in the consumption of anti-obesity drugsin Brazil? A pharmaco-econometric analysis of panel datasets

Este estudo busca analisar os determinantes do consumo de inibidores de apetite (anfepramona, femproporex, mazindol e sibutramina) por meio da estimação de um modelo dinâmico de dados em painel para as capitais brasileiras e do Distrito Federal (DF) no período de 2009 a 2011. Os resultados revelam que o consumo de inibidores de apetite não acompanhou a distribuição geográfica dos indivíduos com excesso de peso e com obesidade nas unidades estudadas. Do consumo recorrente de inibidores, 79% são explicados pelo ocorrido no passado. Dentre as variáveis que explicam o consumo de inibidores, destacam-se os percentuais de adultos com obesidade e que dos que consomem frutas e hortaliças e a taxa de cobertura de planos de saúde. A análise farmacoeconométrica sugere que há problemas no uso racional dos inibidores de apetite nas capitais brasileiras e no DF, seja no que tange ao consumo desses medicamentos com outros fármacos - considerados ilegais pelo Conselho Federal de Medicina e pela Anvisa - e, também, na indicação terapêutica de uso desses produtos.

The scope of this study is to analyze the determinants of the use of appetite suppressants (amfepramone, femproporex, mazindol and sibutramine) through the estimation of a dynamic panel dataset model for the Brazilian state capitals and the Federal District (DF) in the period from 2009 to 2011. The results show that consumption of appetite suppressants did not follow the geographic distribution of overweight and obese individuals across the capitals and DF. There is a recurrent consumption of appetite inhibitors, in which 79% of the current consumption of these drugs is explained by past consumption. Among the variables that explain the use of inhibitors, the percentage of obese adults, the percentage of adults who habitually consume fruit and vegetables, and the coverage rate of health plans stand out. The pharmaco-econometric analysis suggests that there are problems in the rational use of appetite suppressants in the Brazilian state capitals and the Federal District with respect to both the combined consumption of these drugs with other medicines - deemed illegal by the Federal Council of Medicine and ANVISA - and in the therapeutic prescription of these products.

Discriminação contra os estudantes obesos e os muito magros nas escolas brasileiras / Texto para Discussão (TD) 1928: Discriminação contra os estudantes obesos e os muito magros nas escolas brasileiras

Analisa a discriminação contra estudantes com sobrepeso e muito magros nas escolas brasileiras, a partir de dados da PeNSE (Pesquisa Nacional de Saúde do Escolar).

Análisis estadístico de indicadores de calidad del hospital Dr. Joaquín Castillo Duany / Statistics analysis of quality indicators of the hospital Dr. Joaquín Castillo Duany

La presente investigación se desarrolla en la sala de cuidados intensivos del hospital Dr. Joaquín Castillo Duany, de Santiago de Cuba, donde se aplica el análisis multivariado con el objetivo de determinar un modelo econométrico que permita estimar y evaluar los costos de calidad, contribuyendo significativamente a la obtención de la excelencia en los servicios de salud y al proceso de perfeccionamiento hospitalario. La investigación se sustenta en la aplicación de la correlación canónica como técnica multivariante muy potente y poco explotada, utilizando los principales pilares de la econometría como ciencia aplicada, donde se recopilan los indicadores de calidad y eficiencia con la finalidad de realizar un análisis multivariado, que ha permitido obtener un modelo econométrico para la estimación de los costos de calidad en el servicio seleccionado. El modelo aplicado, ha permitido cuantificar y evaluar el comportamiento de los costos de calidad, siendo de gran utilidad para generalizarlo a otros servicios en el sector de la salud. Constituye una herramienta de trabajo para la dirección de la entidad al permitir mejorar el proceso de toma de decisiones en relación con los costos de calidad y evaluar los niveles de eficiencia en los servicios de salud(AU)

The present investigation was done at the intensive care unit of the hospital Dr. Joaquín Castillo Duany in Santiago de Cuba. Multivariate analysis is applied in order to determine and apply a scientific econometric model that helps to estimate and evaluate quality costs, this model will contribute significantly on obtaining a better health service in the hospital. The investigation helps the general fundamental theory upon the quality cost and the application of the canonical correlation as a very potent and little exploited multivariate technique using the principal pillars of the econometrics as an applied science. The indicators of quality and efficiency with the final statistics has permitted us to obtain a mathematical model that permits the estimation of quality cost in the service selected. The above mentioned model application has permitted us to quantify and evaluate the conduct of the quality cost, making it a great utility to generalise to other entity services which constitutes a tool for improve decision making in relation with the cost of quality. It also benefits the evaluation of efficiency level in the health service(AU)